The 2023 NFL Draft is right around the corner, and the oddsmakers have been busy setting up the various 2023 NFL Draft betting markets. We have some advice for would-be sports bettors venturing into wagering on the NFL’s annual event.
2023 NFL Draft Format
The 2023 NFL Draft consists of 32 NFL teams choosing college players over seven rounds in three days. A team’s 2022 results usually predetermine the draft selection order, and teams having underwhelming seasons generally get the top picks in the first round.
This goes on for seven rounds over three days for a total of 224 betting opportunities. That’s an intense amount of betting opportunities, and this is how to make the most of the 224 betting options for the 2023 NFL Draft. Chicago bettors who wish to place bets on the first-overall pick, in particular, can find a local bookie through IL Betting.
How do Draft Odds Work
The 2023 NFL Draft odds work like sports-betting odds for the NFL regular season or any other fixed-odds sporting event.
Sports-betting odds measure how much you can win versus how much you bet, usually per $100 staked. Odds are included in all betting forms and on every sportsbook board. If Ohio State Buckeyes QB C.J. Stroud has -110 odds to be the next pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, the bettor would need to stake $110 for a $100 potential profit.
Sportsbooks make money off the vigorish (vig) or juice attached to a bet. To break even, a bettor must win 52.4% of their bets at -110, which is not as easy as it sounds. An NFL Draft rarely has odds of -110, and instead, you could see -115 to -180 on the next pick odds to +10000 to be the first pick in the draft.
2023 NFL Draft Moneyline Advice
The moneyline or straight-up (SU) is a wager on a specific team or player winning the match or, in this case, where a particular player will be drafted. The most important thing about the SU wager is the price.
Let’s say Bryce Young (-105), Stroud (+250), and Jalen Carter (+500) are the top-three favorites on the board. You would need to stake $105 to win $100 on Young, but the same $100 wager on Stroud would win $250. A $100 on Carter being taken first overall would net $500 for that $100 bet.
TIP: Always consider the price of the bet and the value that comes with it. Stroud may not be the top pick, but he could end up the first QB taken in the draft (+190), and if the bettor wants to bet before knowing which team will draft first, betting Stroud to go before Young (-165) might be the better value and more likely to cash the ticket.
Prop Bet Advice
Mostly the 2023 NFL Draft betting will be SU moneyline plays. Still, there are also pre-draft props for First QB Taken, First Wide Receiver Taken, First Defensive Player Selected, and likely several other prop bet offers as we get closer to the draft.
TIP: Information is the key to winning one of these pre-draft prop bets, and there is value to be had for a savvy gambler. The national guys all have their mock drafts up, and while they are usually good sources of information, the beat writers of the team making the selections are who you want to pay attention to. They talk to the players, coaches, and team management daily and know the specific needs of a team AND who the team really likes. You can find the beat writers on Twitter; they’ll usually be happy to answer any questions you may have.
Draft Position Betting Advice
These are betting markets similar to Over/Under wagers, where the oddsmaker offers a draft number, and the bettor chooses either Over or Under the bookies’ number. These markets would look like this;
Over Round 2 +175
Under Round 2 -150
A $100 bet on Hyatt to get drafted Over Round 2 would net the bettor $175. Conversely, the same $100 on Hyatt being drafted Under the 2nd round requires $150 to win $100. Both bets have value, but making the +175 Over is the least risky with more reward.
TIP: Todd McShay has four WRs going in the first round, and Hyatt wasn’t on his list. WalterFootball also has four wideouts selected and has Hyatt at No. 27. That likely means Hyatt won’t be around past Round 2, and Under -150 could be the best early bet to make. The best advice is to use the national guys to determine needs and possible players and listen to the beat writers to see what they hear from their inside sources.
We would be remiss if we didn’t mention bankroll management and the 2023 NFL Draft.
The draft is what it is, and while plenty of experts are touting their various opinions, no one except for a very few knows what is going on, which player a team is interested in, and which players a team isn’t.
These special events also come with some risk, and rather than risking your bankroll on some crapshoots, a good idea would be to add some extra cash that won’t be missed, break it down into 10% increments or units, and just work with that.
Let’s say you have $100 to wager solely for the 2023 NFL Draft – you would divide the 100 by 10%, and the unit price is $10. The bettor would stake each position with $10 and work with that unit price throughout the draft. This way, if things go sideways, the bankroll remains intact, and the bettor lives for another day.
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