These are my 2023 NFL Betting Props. I’ve done well with these props over the past decade. My dollar count for win totals since 2014 is +$12,620. Here’s what I’m planning on betting this year (results will be added to the regular-season winnings/losses on the NFL Picks page after the Super Bowl is over):
Updated July 25, 2023
2023 NFL Betting Props: Win Totals
Arizona Cardinals: Under 5.5 Wins -140, 4.5 Wins -105, 3.5 wins +260
I don’t know why, but as of May 9, there are only two sportsbooks listing win totals: BetUS and DraftKings. BetUS has Arizona under 5.5 -140 and DraftKings has it at under 4.5 -110. I’d rather have the extra win available for just 30 cents, so I’m going to place a mid-level wager on that because the Cardinals could easily be the worst team in the NFL this year. However, I’m going to wait to see what other sportsbooks have to offer when they list their numbers.
Update: I’m in Vegas, and I found a couple of sportsbooks with under 4.5 -105. I’ll bet three more units on the under. I’m also betting the alternate under, but 3.5 is pretty tight!
Betting 4.2 Units to win 3 at BetUS (locked in as of 5/9/23)
Betting 3.15 Units to win 3 at Circa/Caesars (locked in as of 7/15/23)
Betting 2 Units to win 5.2 at Circa (locked in as fo 7/15/23)
Detroit Lions: Over 10.5 Wins +195
I initially wasn’t going to bet this, but I decided that I should put my money where my mouth is. I love the Lions this year, so even though there was some sticker shock upon seeing a high number, I think it’s very likely that the Lions go over their win total.
Betting 2 Units to win 3.9 at Circa (locked in as of 7/16/23)
Houston Texans: Over 6.5 Wins +115
I think we should be betting one of the Texans, Colts or Titans to go over their win total because their schedule is so easy. Not only do they play easy games within their division; they also get to battle the NFC South teams. Of the three squads, the Texans have the best odds. With improved quarterback play, a solid offensive line, and a Will Anderson-led pass rush, the Texans could certainly get to seven-plus wins.
Betting 2 Units to win 2.3 at MGM (locked in as of 7/15/23)
New Orleans Saints: Under 9.5 Wins -125
Why do we think the Saints are going to win 10-plus games? I don’t get it. New Orleans is a very poorly coached team with some glaring holes. The division sucks, sure, but I don’t see the Saints getting to double-digit victories.
Betting 5 Units to win 4 at Circa (locked in as of 7/15/23)
New York Giants: Over 7.5 Wins -105
The Giants were lucky in some wins last year, but they’ve made some nice improvements this offseason, so I don’t expect the regression that many are anticipating. The Giants play in a soft conference, so they should be to accumulate wins pretty easily.
Betting 3.15 Units to win 3 at MGM/Circa (locked in as of 7/15/23)
Pittsburgh Steelers: Over 8.5 Wins -130
The Steelers have never had a losing record under Mike Tomlin, and I expect that to continue as long as T.J. Watt remains on the field. Pittsburgh was 8-2 with Watt last year, and now it’ll have a quarterback with experience and an upgraded offensive line.
Betting 3.9 Units to win 3 at Circa (locked in as of 7/15/23)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Under 6.5 Wins -130; Under 5.5 Wins +170
As with the Arizona pick, there are just two lines available. For under 6.5, you can get -130 at DraftKings and -115 at BetUS. Hopefully we’ll get more options soon, but as for now, I’m going under with this dreadful team.
Update: I haven’t found a better number than under 6.5 -130, so I’ll double down on this wager. I’m also going to bet under on the alt total.
Betting 3.45 Units to win 3 at BetUS (locked in as of 5/9/23)
Betting 3.9 Units to win 3 at MGM (locked in as of 7/15/23)
Betting 3 Units to win 5.1 at Circa (locked in as of 7/15/23)
2023 NFL Betting Props: Super Bowl Odds
Cincinnati Bengals: 11/1
I like to bet a favorite or two as a hedge for the longer-shot wagers. The Bengals are my preferred favorite, as I believe they are the best team in the NFL. I wanted to wait until closer to the regular season because of the injury factor, but I couldn’t resist the 11/1 at DraftKings. I don’t think we’re going to get a better number than this, and I’m not sure how long it’ll be around.
Betting 2 Unit to win 22 at DraftKings (locked in as of 7/15/23)
Detroit Lions: 33/1
I bet the Lions at 165/1 last year. This made me look like an idiot when they began the year with a 1-6 record, but injuries and bad luck sabotaged their start. Detroit finished the year with an 8-2 record. The offense was unstoppable, while the defense improved by leaps and bounds. The 49ers were very lucky the Lions didn’t sneak in as the No. 7 seed; Detroit matched up extremely well with San Francisco, so an upset was very possible. With that in mind, a case can be made that the Lions will be the best team in the NFC in 2023. That may sound insane right now, but the Eagles have 12 key free agents, while Tom Brady has retired. Aaron Rodgers could move on to the AFC. Meanwhile, Detroit has the 11th-most cap space in the NFL, so its vastly improved front office could make some moves to further strengthen the roster.
Betting 3 Unit to win 99 at BetUS (locked in as of 2/14/23)
Jacksonville Jaguars: 28/1
Jacob Camenker and I bet the Jaguars last year at 125/1 odds, which we were able to successfully hedge with the Chiefs ahead of the divisional round of the playoffs. The Jaguars are now 28/1, which doesn’t seem like a good deal. However, the Jaguars will have a nice boost with Calvin Ridley joining the team. The automatic addition of Ridley will allow Jacksonville to focus on defense in free agency. Also, remember that the Jaguars play in a very easy division. The Texans and Colts will be terrible, while the Titans have some major personnel issues as far as aging players and free agents are concerned.
Betting 1 Unit to win 28 at BetUS (locked in as of 2/14/23)
Las Vegas Raiders: 40/1
I’m making two speculative bets for Aaron Rodgers’ destination. There’s a good chance the Raiders land Rodgers to reunite him with Davante Adams. Rodgers would automatically make the Raiders a Super Bowl contender, provided he doesn’t break his thumb again. I don’t like the idea of betting a team in Kansas City’s division, but as we saw last year, there’s room for two AFC West playoff teams. If the Raiders land Rodgers, their odds will drop to about 15/1, so I want the great 40/1 value.
Betting 1 Unit to win 40 at Bovada (locked in as of 2/14/23)
San Angeles Chargers: 30/1
I’m adding this one late. I’ve been doing some research from last year, and I was amazed by how good the metrics were for the Chargers despite how many significant injuries they had. Perhaps their key players will continue to get hurt, but if they don’t, they’ll be in contention as one of the top teams in the NFL.
Betting 1 Unit to win 30 at Bovada (locked in as of 7/25/23)
Minnesota Vikings: 50/1
I imagine Vikings fans are wondering if they’re on the correct Web site. I trashed the Vikings all year because they were a fraudulent team, barely scraping by mediocre-at-best competition. However, things could be much better for them in 2023. Their issue was their horrendous defense, which will automatically improve with Brian Flores serving as the defensive coordinator. If the Vikings can plug some of their defensive holes, they could turn into a legitimate powerhouse next year. I can’t believe they’re 50/1 to win the Super Bowl.
Betting 1 Unit to win 50 at BetUS (locked in as of 2/14/23)
New York Jets: 30/1
Here’s the other possible Rodgers destination. The Jets would also become instant Super Bowl contenders with Rodgers, who will enjoy throwing to Garrett Wilson, Elijah Moore, and Corey Davis. The defense is excellent, and don’t forget about Breece Hall. I think the Jets are in a better position than the Raiders, but I’d love both teams with Rodgers.
Betting 1 Unit to win 30 at Caesars (locked in as of 2/14/23)
Pittsburgh Steelers: 60/1
The Steelers are my favorite team with long odds. They were 8-2 with T.J. Watt last year, and yet that was with a rookie quarterback under center. Kenny Pickett now has experience, while Pittsburgh’s offensive line received an upgrade in the wake of the Isaac Seumalo signing. Mike Tomlin has never had a losing season in his career, so if the Steelers reach the playoffs, it’ll be nice to have a hedging opportunity with this 60/1 future.
Betting 1 Unit to win 60 at Bovada (locked in as of 7/15/23)
2023 NFL Betting Props: MVP
Jalen Hurts to win MVP 12/1 (FanDuel)
I bet Jalen Hurts to win MVP last year at 40/1 odds, and I was robbed. He lost the MVP race when he missed two games due to injury, but given that the Eagles lost those games, it only proved that he was more valuable. I think the MVP voters know that they gypped Hurts, so perhaps they’ll give him the award if it’s close, much like the NBA voters awarded Joel Embiid this past season. Hurts has decent odds compared to the rest of the top players.
Betting 1 Unit to win 12 at FanDuel (locked in as of 7/15/23)
2023 NFL Betting Props: Other
Atlanta Falcons to win NFC South: +275
I wouldn’t count out the Panthers, but they have a rookie quarterback and a new coach. Atlanta and New Orleans are probably better than Carolina. I view the Falcons and Saints similarly, so +275 seems like a great price for Atlanta to win the division.
Betting 1 Units to win 2.75 at BetUS/DraftKings (locked in as of 5/9/23)
New Orleans Saints to miss the playoffs: +155
It doesn’t seem as though the public is evaluating the Saints correctly because there’s no way this future should be plus money. The Saints are probably the third-best team in the NFC South. They’re coached very poorly, and they don’t have a pass rush.
Betting 2 Units to win 3.1 at DraftKings/Circa (locked in as of 7/15/23)
2023 NFL Draft Props (+59.75 Units)
Jalen Carter Top Five Pick +100
I have a feeling, based on Seattle’s history, that Jalen Carter will be the fifth-overall pick. Will Anderson or C.J. Stroud being available could derail this, but I’m not even sure about that. I think Carter might still be the pick.
Betting 4 Units to win 4 at Bovada (locked in as of 4/26/23)
Jalen Carter Drafted by Seahawks +400
I can’t believe this line. It’s +400 at BetUS, which is insane! Unfortunately, BetUS has capped this at a $50 risk.
Betting 0.5 Units to win 2 at BetUS (locked in as of 4/26/23)
Zay Flowers Under 23.5 -116, Under 22.5 +125
Zay Flowers is a dynamic receiver capable of going the distance whenever he touches the ball. He could go in the early teens, and I’d be shocked if he got past the Seahawks, Chargers, Ravens and Vikings.
Betting 5.8 Units to win 5 at Bookmaker (locked in as of 4/26/23)
Betting 3 Units to win 3.75 at Bovada (locked in as of 4/26/23)
Jahmyr Gibbs First Round -205
Jahmyr Gibbs has been graded as a top-five player in this class by multiple teams. I’ll be very surprised if he’s not chosen in the first round.
Betting 4.1 Units to win 2 at Bovada (locked in as of 4/26/23)
Jahmyr Gibbs Drafted by Lions +1800
If Bijan Robinson is off the board, Jahmyr Gibbs would be a great fit for the Lions’ pick at No. 18.
Betting 1.5 Units to win 27 at Bovada (locked in as of 4/27/23)
Bijan Robinson Under 13.5 -193
Bijan Robinson has been graded as the top prospect in this class by many teams. Sure, he’s a running back, but I’d still be surprised if he doesn’t go in the top 10.
Betting 9.65 Units to win 5 at Bookmaker (locked in as of 4/26/23)
Bijan Robinson Drafted by Falcons +190
After doing some thinking, I really like the fit for Bijan Robinson to the Falcons. If Robinson gets by the Lions, he could certainly be the pick at No. 8.
Betting 5 Units to win 9.5 at Bookmaker (locked in as of 4/27/23)
Darnell Washington Over 34.5 -105
Darnell Washington is dealing with injuries, as reported by Charlie Campbell. He’s likely to fall. Unfortunately, BetUS has this capped at a $26.25 risk.
Betting 0.26 Units to win 0.25 at BetUS (locked in as of 4/26/23)
Devon Witherspoon Under 6.5 -105
Devon Witherspoon is the top cornerback in this class, so he has a great chance to be taken in the top six. The only thing that could derail this is Will Anderson falling to the Lions at No. 6, so I’m not super confident in this one.
Betting 3.15 Units to win 3 at Bookmaker (locked in as of 4/26/23)
Two Running Backs in the First Round
The juice on this sucks, but I would be shocked if Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs aren’t chosen in the first round.
Betting 2.3 Units to win 1 at Bovada (locked in as of 4/26/23)
First Position by Browns: Offensive Lineman +900
This is not based on any sourced information, but I want to show you the positional breakdown of players the Browns brought in for top-30 visits:
Given that, +900 for offensive linemen seems like great value. I wouldn’t go crazy with this one though.
Betting 0.25 Units to win 2.25 at Bovada (locked in as of 4/28/23)
Team to Draft Hendon Hooker: Lions +800
I’m confident the Lions would draft Hendon Hooker in the second round, though not necessarily at No. 34. Be careful with betting second-round props though because anything can happen. There might be some other team that loves Hooker and jumps in front of the Lions’ 48th or 55th picks to take him. I’m only betting a unit on this.
Betting 1 Unit to win 8 at Bovada (locked in as of 4/28/23)
Fantasy Football Rankings - Aug. 9
2024 NFL Mock Draft - July 25
NFL Power Rankings - June 2
NFL Picks - Feb. 14